Changing the forecast

Being a trend forecaster at the moment is weird. I’ve been working with a client whose whole business is based on people going abroad and shopping in stores, and nobody’s going to be doing that for a while. Another commissioned me to look at the future of luxury, and that’s looking pretty questionable too (though it usually manages to survive, thanks to the cocoon created by wealth).

But i’m also working on forecasts for 2022. Working 2 years out is pretty normal for forecasters and futurists, because things usually unfold in a reasonably predictable pattern – we see niche ideas/brands/figures become mainstream over the course of 12-24 months, we can use industry forecasts or shifts in behaviour to frame our thinking. When there’s a major global event like a recession or a pandemic, things become harder to predict. Some behaviours get abandoned, companies fold, spending changes focus, and the kind of entertainment we’re into changes vibe.

Already, the forecaster in me is watching like a hawk to see how people’s preferences and behaviours are changing. Some things are heartwarming and delightful (Clap for our Carers  and Dolly donating funds to support medical research), some are disappointing (loo roll hoarding and Medical staff abuse.

There may be a demand for analysis about how lockdown has affected consumer attitudes post-Covid – one client has even said they’re looking forward to doing a big piece of research on this “once its all over”  – but i suppose it’s equally likely that brands and retailers could decide they don’t need us oracles of consumption any more (Please note: i’ve been playing a lot of Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey in lockdown so oracles are looming large at the mo. I do not deem myself an oracle). After all, we didn’t see this coming. Scientists have been warning for years that we were due a major outbreak of disease, and we were all “Tra-la-la, i’m good, i’ve got crystals/shapewear/sourdough”.

We couldn’t predict this, but it looks like the trends that we have forecast for the coming months and years are actually manifesting – just more rapidly and in different ways.  The need to simplify things to cope with complexity and the now-enforced shift towards homebody culture are now dominant themes for many. A greater consciousness about how and where we spend our money is becoming more profound, while the necessary appreciation of the outdoors could bring new awareness to environmental and wellbeing issues. Also, home fitness is well and truly a thing – just not the fancy Peloton kind, the much more accessible yoga-mat-and-Zoom kind. The fact that a lot of fitness studios – even small businesses and one-man-bands are offering classes for free – to help us all keep well and sane – gives me a lot of feelings. But we can talk about brands being surprisingly nice another time.

The interconnectedness of things

It’s been a while since i had thoughts or time to post here, but in this strange time of lockdown, i find i have a surplus of both.

Since the world has come to recognise the gravity of the coronavirus Pandemic – not just as a Chinese problem but a global one – it’s really brought to light the interconnectedness of our economy, our social media, everything. Not only that we are all touched by this virus in different ways, but that every action we take has far-reaching consequences for others around the world. An uncovered cough could spread the virus far and wide. A thoughtful purchase could support someone’s livelihood. As a consumer analyst (and experienced consumer myself), this element fascinates me.

Should we still be shopping at all? These recent think pieces from the New York Times and Man Repeller,  both of which have gone semi-viral, explore the quandary at the heart of consumption right now. Is it a facile waste of money or a moral imperative to support independent businesses and offshore supply chains? So far, the prevailing mood on social media has been to encourage those who can afford it to support independent businesses – small fashion companies, local restaurants, social enterprises, your corner shop. In our house, we call it “tossing a coin to your Witcher” (if you haven’t watched The Witcher yet, try it, it’s fun and the Superman dude is impressively massive, and you probably have time on your hands).

But is it not also important to buy from those global retailers with their complex supply chains that support millions of low-paid workers? Especially when those mega-retailers are cancelling orders that would keep millions of people in work? This could have catastrophic effects for countries that rely on production contracts for global brands, like Bangladesh, Cambodia and Myanmar.

We just have to remember that our fates are interconnected with those running independent fashion brands as much as those people who weave, cut and sew mainstream clothing. We are all affected by this pandemic, and most of us have a lot less money to spend. So just think carefully about where you spend. If you can, help to keep this madly complex global economy ticking over. Support those companies you care about, but remember that there are people on the other side of the world working for massive brands who also need you to toss a coin.

Don’t get me wrong, i’m not saying anyone should be focusing on shopping right now. Especially as even online shopping can put people at risk, but for some of us, getting a little something new is a way to break the boredom or provide reassurance in a difficult time. As Harling Ross writes in Man Repeller, “it’s a tangible form of hope”.